An unfortunate dynamic in the day-to-day reporting on COVID-19 is people doubting the expertise behind predictive models.
For instance, in the early days we heard dire warnings of as many as 2 million deaths in this country. Recently those numbers had changed to predict between 100,000 and 240,000–still way too many, but literally an order of magnitude less. Some took this as evidence of waffling.
Actually, it demonstrates that predictive modeling works.
Both sets of numbers depend on a small, key word: if.
The 2 million figure was accurate if people did nothing to stop the spread of the virus. Because of that warning, people didn’t do nothing. The something they did in response has reduced the numbers to 240,000.
That number, in turn, has certain ifs with it. We could likely reduce those numbers further, but only if we as a nation do certain things, or if it turns out that hot weather kills the virus, or if a lot of people have already been exposed without knowing it, and so we develop herd immunity. Lots of ifs, and that’s not a failure of the model. That’s a reflection of uncertainty.
So when we recognize that feeling of inadequacy and unworthiness common to humans, reflected in Paul’s statement to the Romans that “All have sinned and fall short of God’s glory” (Romans 3:23), we might think it’s a done deal, too late, all is lost, might as well get used to the idea. This is what we have traditionally called “lost.”
But we have available a pretty big if.
Because if you confess with your mouth “Jesus is Lord” and in your heart you have faith that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved. (Rom. 10:9, CEB)
See what I mean? If matters. Maybe that helps a little as you listen to the news. Maybe it helps a little as you look at your life. That verse isn’t a threat, as some consider it. It just means that when you think it’s too late for you, remember: it’s not all a done deal.
Peace.